Trudeau in his resignation speech. Sean Kilpatrick, The Canadian Press
On January 6, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his intention to resign, as both Prime Minister and leader of the country’s Liberal Party, after his party selects his successor. Trudeau, who had previously balked at calls for resignation, eventually succumbed to mounting pressure from Liberal Members of Parliament, tanking numbers in opinion polls, and resignations of high-level officials.
The resignation of the PM’s former ally Chrystia Freeland, the deputy prime minister and head of finance, over concerns regarding U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned imposition of tariffs, signaled the growing internal resentment among the party. Beyond that, in response to the country’s cost of living crisis, Trudeau’s approval ratings have tanked and Liberal MPs have increasingly called upon him to step down, to best position the party for the elections scheduled later this year. Parliamentary members in the opposition parties have also indicated that they would move for a vote of no-confidence upon Parliament’s return in late January. A move which, if successful, could have triggered federal elections at a time when the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, had a demanding lead in polls.
In his resignation speech, Trudeau cited struggles with internal cohesion among the Liberal party, noting that, to best position the party for the upcoming elections, he must step down. The PM said his “one regret” was that the country never instituted a system of ranked-choice voting, which could have alleviated political polarization.
Trudeau also announced that Mary Simon, Canada’s governor general, accepted his request to prorogue Parliament, suspending all votes and proceedings until March 24. In recent days, however, the Federal Court of Canada expedited a suit challenging the constitutional validity of Trudeau’s prorogation, citing the urgency of a response to Trump’s foreign policy. The hearing to prorogue could be held as early as February 13 or 14th, and the result could bring Parliament back earlier than expected.
In the meantime, the Liberal Party will need to act decisively, because upon its return, the first item on the Parliament’s agenda will be a confidence motion put forward by the Conservative Party. If the Liberal Party loses the vote, the party’s leader will resign or dissolve Parliament, either of which would trigger a federal election.
A number of individuals, including Freeland and Liberal House leader Karina Gould, have announced their intention to be Trudeau’s successor, and the final vote to pick a candidate will be on March 9th. Meanwhile, Poilievre has emerged as an early favorite among Conservatives, who want someone to push back against Trump.
Trudeau’s decision to step down mirrors President Biden’s move to drop out of the race for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Together, they mark the end of the liberal trifecta of heads of state in North America. Trudeau’s resignation is another instance of the anti-incumbent trend–a global movement wherein the incumbent leader is punished electorally for the lasting impacts of COVID-era troubles. If other democracies are any indication, this could lay the foundation for the election of a right-wing populist with an economic focus–the exact characterization of Pierre Polievre. Regardless, Trudeau’s successor will have to navigate an economic crisis and frosty US-Canada relations amid increased tensions from Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs and calls for Canada to be the 51st U.S. state. Their decisiveness and efficacy will be critical, as it will determine whether they serve the country for years or face a similar fate to Trudeau.